Water Shortages And Wildfires, And A Lot Of Hot Air From Governor Ducey (Updated)

Update to Western Mega Drought Threatens Arizona Water Supplies.

The Associated Press reports Key reservoir on Colorado River hits record low amid drought:

The surface elevation of Lake Mead along the Nevada-Arizona border dipped to 1,071.56 feet (326.6 meters) at 11 p.m. on Wednesday evening. The level was last hit in July 2016 and is 18.5 feet (5.6 meters) lower than one year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. It’s the lowest level since Lake Mead was filled in the 1930s.

“We’re expecting the reservoir to keep declining until November, then it should start to rebound,” said U.S. Bureau of Reclamation spokeswoman Patti Aaron.

Lake Mead levels ebb and flow throughout the year depending on weather patterns and how much water is consumed or evaporates. Officials project the lake will fall to 1,064 feet (324 meters) before rebounding in November when agriculture needs decrease, Aaron said.

The water level affects the recreation industry at what is one of the largest man-made reservoirs in the country and the efficiency of hydropower generation at Hoover Dam.

It won’t be used to determine next year’s water deliveries to Arizona, California and Nevada until August when the Bureau of Reclamation issues an official projection. Already, the agency has said it’s expected to declare the first-ever shortage declaration that prompts cuts in Arizona and Nevada.

The Colorado River supplies 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming as well as a $5 billion-a-year agricultural industry.

UPDATE: The New York Times reports, How Severe Is the Western Drought? See For Yourself. (Read this data rich report).

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor·Conditions during the first week of June.

Peter Anin writes at the Washington Post, The Southwest’s water problems are about to get much worse:

Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir, is a lifeblood for 25 million people in the Southwest. But for the third time in six years, it’s about to hit a record low. Water levels have fallen more than 140 feet since 2000, leaving the reservoir only 36 percent full.

Today, Mead is rimmed by a broad white bathtub ring marking how far water levels have fallen during the Colorado River’s 22-year megadrought. The Bureau of Reclamation says the new low record will be set on Thursday, a sober climate-change milestone.

Mead has always managed to bounce back from prior lows. But the Bureau’s latest 24-month forecast shows the reservoir stubbornly staying in record territory through year’s end. That has never happened since Hoover Dam was built in the 1930s.

Hence, the federal government is expected to declare an unprecedented “shortage” on the river this summer, prompting mandatory water cuts, especially in Arizona. “This is a day we knew would come at some point … and we’ve been preparing for this moment for at least a couple of decades,” said Ted Cooke, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, which delivers Colorado River water to 80 percent of the state’s population.

[I]t’s not enough to prevent the looming cutbacks under pre-negotiated, hard-fought drought-planning agreements. Under those plans, Arizona, Nevada and California agreed to predetermined water cuts if Lake Mead dropped to certain trigger points. The reservoir is expected to stay below the “Level 1” trigger through year’s end.

But there is a more ominous stat in the Bureau’s 24-month Lake Mead projection. Data for October 2022 shows the reservoir dropping below elevation 1,050 — the drought agreements’ next tier of pain — and staying there for months, potentially prompting even more severe cuts.

The drought hurts energy production, too. Less water means less power generation from the mighty turbines in the bowels of Hoover Dam. Today’s low water has already curbed electric production by 25 percent. If Mead drops below 1,050, it will impact the grid far beyond the river. President Biden has yet to nominate a Bureau of Reclamation commissioner to navigate this unprecedented era.

Not surprisingly, the megadrought has spawned a series of preposterous, expensive and polarizing water-diversion proposals … At the rate things are going, the Southwest may well need congressional drought relief. But proposing unrealistic and controversial diversions that roil half of Congress does not seem like the best way to create a sympathetic audience.

* * *

The smartest Western water managers are investing in technologies that provide a diverse supply of drought-resistant local water options. California has 12 seawater desalination plants, and six more have been proposed. Meanwhile, Scottsdale, Ariz., has built one of the largest potable water recycling facilities in the country, which turns sewage into drinking water. Los Angeles has pledged to recycle 100 percent of its sewage by 2035. “Water reuse,” says Patricia Sinicropi, executive director of the WateReuse Association, “is the future of water management.”

If that’s the future, then Hoover Dam is the past. That expansive white ring circling Lake Mead is a reminder that the harrowing water struggles of the past will likely pale in comparison with those of our climate-changed future, testing water officials like never before.

The megadrought is also fueling yet another horrific wildfire season. Cronkite News reports, Hot, dry forecast offers little relief as wildfires rage in Arizona:

A half-dozen wildfires were burning close to 140,000 acres across Arizona and growing, as heat, wind and drought conditions complicated firefighting efforts, officials said.

The largest of the blazes, the Telegraph Fire near Superior, grew by 11,000 acres between Monday and Tuesday morning to more than 71,000 acres, and led to additional evacuation orders in the region. More than 1,400 firefighters were fighting it and the 66,000-acre Mescal Fire near San Carlos by Tuesday afternoon.

Weather officials said little relief is in sight, with forecasts of heat, continued drought and winds likely to bring “erratic” fire behavior that threatens firefighters’ health and makes it more difficult to bring the situations under control.

“The heat dries out the surrounding trees, brush and grass, making areas more susceptible to burn and catching on fire,” said Aaron Hardin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tucson. “And the hotter it gets the more susceptible firefighters are to heat-related illness.”

The Telegraph and Mescal fires are the largest of six that have been burning across the state in recent days. Three of them – the Boggy Creek and McDonald Tank fires in Apache County and the Sycamore Canyon Fire in Pima County – are at least 50% contained.

The Slate Fire near Flagstaff, which was at zero containment, had 130 firefighters battling it Tuesday.

Tiffany Davila, public affairs officer with the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management, said the state saw an uptick in wildfire activity in May and that activity is likely to continue through July, until “the heart of monsoon season.”

Remember that last summer was the “nonsoon” – we did not have a summer rainy season. How Dry We Are: Monsoon 2020 Second Worst in the Record Books.

In the meantime, Davila said, it’s important for people to “be proactive and create defensible space around their property.” That includes removing dead vegetation from their yards, rooftops and gutters, as well as any flammable material outside the house such as firewood and patio furniture, to create a buffer between people’s homes and potential wildfires.

Davila also encouraged residents in fire-prone areas to be prepared with evacuation plans and their belongings.

“People need to be prepared ahead of time so they safely evacuate,” Davila said.

Now that his bogus “flat tax” proposal in his fantasy budget proposal has been defeated, Governor Doug Ducey is looking for anything to make him look like a successful leader, while Republicans negotiate amongst themselves for a new budget proposal before June 30.

So Governor Ducey is calling a special session purportedly to address Arizona’s wildfires (it is really to buy time, a distraction, for Republican negotiators to piece together another state budget that they can actually pass). Ducey calls special legislative session for wildfires funding:

Gov. Doug Ducey called Thursday for a special legislative session on funding to deal with wildfire issues, saying the current fires are just the beginning of expected problems.

“It’s clear that we still have a lot more to do,” he said after taking a helicopter tour over the fires and charred remains of the Telegraph and Mescal fires.

“The response won’t end when the fires are put out,’’ he continued. “When this year’s monsoon rains come, these burned areas are prone to landslides, mudslides and flooding, which pose another threat to our communities.’’

Ducey’s move came one day after he declared a state of emergency, which freed up $200,000 for each blaze using resources under his control.

But allocating larger amounts of money, especially for future flood mitigation, requires legislative approval.

The special session, which he called for next week, technically isn’t required. State lawmakers already are at the Capitol — though they shouldn’t be, this late in the year — trying to work out a deal on a spending and tax-cut plan for the new fiscal year that begins July 1.

Ducey essentially acknowledged that isn’t going so well.

“We can put the budget aside for a few moments and focus on Gila County, focus on this issue,’’ he said. “So it’s a way to just stop all the other noise that is necessary in any legislative session to get big things done and to focus on the fire and the people of Gila County.’’

Yet Ducey said Thursday he has no idea how much money he wants lawmakers to approve.

“I‘m winging it, man! I’m just making this up as I go to distract from my massive budget failure.”

“That’s what the special session is for,’’ he said, though he later said it could run into the “tens of millions of dollars.’’

“That’s something we’re going to sit down in a bipartisan way with the leaders of the chambers and figure that out,’’ Ducey said. “This should be a win for Arizona.’’

“Bipartisan”? What he really meant to say was Republican legislative leaders and his bosses in the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the “Kochtopus” Network. Democrats not needed.

The City of Globe still remains at risk. There’s also the possibility that the two blazes could merge as their boundaries are 10 miles apart.

The fire has become personal for at least two lawmakers.

House Speaker Russell Bowers, R-Mesa, who suggested the special session, lost a family cabin in the Telegraph Fire.

And Rep. David Cook, R-Globe, pointing Thursday to the smoke in the distance, said his cattle ranch reaches from the top of the Pinal Mountains right to the Globe city limits.

Bowers warned that even when the fires are contained and extinguished, flooding could become a real problem.

“With what’s happened up on the mountains, it’s going to be a bad, bad summer if we get a heavy monsoon — which we need,’’ he said.

Don’t count on it … we’re in the midsts of an historic megadrought.

While Ducey hopes for quick approval of whatever funding he seeks without the distraction of the state budget stalemate, some Democrats are not sure it’s possible to separate the issues.

In a Twitter post Thursday, Rep. Diego Rodriguez, D-Phoenix, pointed out that a key element of the proposal by the Republican governor and GOP legislative leaders was to create a flat income tax rate. [This was defeated in a series of votes in the House this week.]

“A flat tax would remove $2 billion in state revenue (a year) over the next 10 years, wiping out the resources we need to fight these types of wildfires and help the people and communities recover from the devastation,’’ he wrote.

Ducey disagreed.

“We’re sitting on, depending on whose number you look to, about a $4 billion surplus in our state,’’ Ducey continued. “That’s why we’re able to take action and help these people.’’

The duplicitous Doug Ducey leaves out that the “surplus” is due to over a decade of budget cuts, particularly to public education since the Great Recession, which has never been fully restored, and the massive federal COVID-19 relief aid to state and local governments which was intended by Congress to backfill those years of budget cuts, not to use it for yet another tax giveaway to corporations and Ducey’s wealthy friends.

Ducey’s response ignores what even the legislature’s own economists project is that his flat tax cuts $1.5 billion a year from state revenue and keeps higher-earning taxpayers from having to directly pay a new 3.5% surcharge to fund schools (Invest In Ed, Prop. 208).

This guy is such a shameless liar. The media really needs to smack him down for it.