No, not Suze, Greg Orman, an Independent from Kansas running for U.S. Senate. If you have been following this melodrama, Democratic candidate for Senate Chad Taylor terminated his campaign last week.
Greg Orman was polling better than he was, and a two-way race rather than a three-way race is the only way to defeat Republican Senate incumbent Pat Roberts, whose approval numbers are in the toilet in Kansas.
Chad Taylor filed to remove his name from the ballot last week. Tea-Publican Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach said “sorry, but no,” because with Taylor on the ballot he might still draw enough votes away from Greg Orman to help the pathetic Pat Roberts win reelection. To the courts!
Today the Kansas Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Taylor v. Kobach. Rick Hasen at Election Law Blog followed the arguments, and posted his analysis. Live Blogging #KSSEN Taylor v. Kobach: Analysis:
Oral argument in the Kansas Supreme Court has now completed in the case of Kobach v. Taylor, on the question whether Taylor’s name can be removed from the Kansas U.S. Senate ballot. The issue is especially important with incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts now trailing independent Greg Orman in recent polling and with the fate of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance.
While it is always hazardous to predict outcomes from oral argument (because Justices sometimes ask rhetorical questions or minds change after argument), I think it is likely the Justices will quickly issue an order removing Taylor’s name from the ballot. Nothing is a sure thing, but enough of the Justices speaking seemed to indicate their belief that Taylor should be allowed to withdraw because Taylor’s declaration of withdrawal complied with the statute (by stating he was withdrawing “pursuant to” the statute even if he did not mention the magic words of withdrawal), or substantially complied with the statute, or he complied because only the request to withdraw but not the declaration of incapability needs to be in writing, or because Kobach lacked the discretion to judge if the letter complied, or because the court should view Taylor’s declaration as complying with the statute to avoid the risk of voter confusion.
Much of the discussion at oral argument concerned other letters of withdrawal which the SOS had received in recent years, including some earlier letters which were submitted (late) to the court. It seems to show a pattern of the SOS exercising discretion in deciding which letters complied. The Justices seemed to get Kobach’s lawyer to admit that substantial compliance may sometimes be enough. With that concession, there is a relatively easy path to finding the letter substantially complied.
Nothing in the argument seemed to turn on whether Taylor received incorrect assurances that the letter was accurate from someone in the Secretary of State’s office. It looks like the Court will avoid the disputed factual issue by finding that the letter (substantially) complied with statutory requirements.
If the Court does allow Taylor’s name to be removed from the ballot, what is not clear is what happens to naming a replacement. As I understand it the name must come from a party convention, but the ballots must begin being printed on Saturday.
Well Rick, the Democrats do not want a replacement candidate, they are backing the independent Greg Orman. Steve Benen explains why, Roberts falls further behind in Kansas:
The first poll, taken shortly after Chad Taylor’s [withdrawal] announcement, was a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by local station KSN-TV, and it showed Orman up by one over Roberts, 37% to 36%. This was obviously cause for alarm in Republican circles, but a one-point margin is hardly grounds for panic.
These new figures, however, are cause for panic.
Independent Greg Orman leads Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Ks.), 41 percent to 34 percent, according to a poll released to HuffPost by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. Six percent said they’d still vote for Democrat Chad Taylor, who has announced he’s leaving the race, but whose name may remain on the ballot pending a lawsuit being heard Tuesday. Another 4 percent opted for libertarian Randall Batson, with the remaining 15 percent undecided.
The PPP results find Roberts deeply unpopular, with a -17 net job approval rating among all voters, and only modestly positive numbers even among his Republican base. Orman, in contrast, has a +18 net favorable rating, with Democrats and independents giving him even stronger ratings, and Republicans about evenly split.
A seven-point lead is not insurmountable — and this is obviously just one poll — but there is no good news here for Republicans. Roberts is unpopular; Orman is popular. Roberts trails by seven, and that’s with the Democrat still getting 6 percent despite no longer running. Those voters are likely to keep shifting to Orman, especially as Taylor fights to get his name off the ballot.
Of course, Roberts isn’t done yet. The senator has returned to the state he represents — a novel idea, to be sure — and Beltway Republicans have dispatched experienced operatives to try and save his career.
The New York Times had a lengthy report yesterday that is worth the read. Conservative Experiment Faces Revolt in Reliably Red Kansas. If reliably red Kansas can reject the ideological extremism of Tea-Publicans, it certainly can happen here in Arizona.