Talking Baseball
May 28, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Back in the good old days, one popular belief for forecasting teams that would finish in first place centered on Memorial Day. The teams in first place on the morning of Memorial Day, the belief held, would end the season in first place.
Murray Chass writes Memorial Day Madness:
Perhaps at one time the Memorial Day guideline made sense, especially in the days of two leagues and no divisions. But narrowing the statistical sample to the current era of six divisions [and wild card teams], the Memorial Day barometer barely prevails.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, since 1995, the forecast formula has worked only 58 percent of the time, where 56 of 97 teams in sole possession of first place on Memorial Day morning have ended the season as division winners.
Last season only half of the Memorial Day division leaders were division leaders at the end. Texas, Philadelphia and Arizona made it; Boston, Cleveland and St. Louis did not.
The Cardinals nevertheless crept into the post-season as the National League wild card and won the World Series.
The most surprising and unlikely team in first place this Memorial Day is the Washington Nationals (aka the "Nats").
The original Washington Nationals (aka the "Senators") played in the American League from 1905-1960, and their motto was "Washington first in war, first in peace, last in the American League." For many years that was true. The Washington Nationals won only one World Series behind "The Big Train" Walter Johnson in the latter part of his career, defeating the New York Giants in 1924. The Nationals had a chance to repeat as world champions in 1925, but they became the first team to blow a 3-1 World Series lead to lose to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals best season was in 1933, making the World Series for the last time, but losing to the New York Giants.
In 1960, the renamed Washington Senators moved to Minnesota to become my Minnesota Twins, who this year on Memorial Day are competing with the Chicago Cubs for the worst record in baseball. Oy!
The current Washington Nationals team is the old Montreal Expos so maybe the old motto does not apply. Although the Expos only made the post season once in the split season strike year of 1981. The Expos had the best record in baseball in 1994 when, again, a strike ended the baseball season in August. Lucky for the "Nats" there is no player strike this year.
Memorial Day Message
May 28, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Memorial Day message that President Obama delivered over the weekend in his weekly address. Video below the fold.
Tea-Publicans discover their inner Keynesian
May 27, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Steve Benen has an informative post on economics, Keynesians to the left of me, Keynesians to the right of me:
The gist of Keynesian economics is fairly straightforward: during an economic downturn, caused by insufficient demand, it's up to the public sector to inject capital into the system while consumers and businesses pull back. It's what FDR used to rescue the country from the Great Depression and it's what President Obama used to rescue us from the Great Recession.
Republicans, at least the contemporary version of them, loathe Keynesian economics. As the GOP sees it, supply and demand aren't as important as shrinking government during a downturn. When consumers and businesses pull back, Republicans argue, the economy will improve if government does the same — taking capital out of the struggling system — and focuses more on debt reduction and less on growth.
It's why, in 2009, at the height of the global crisis, congressional Republicans not only vehemently fought against a Keynesian stimulus, they also strongly recommended a five-year federal spending freeze (a proposal even David Brooks characterized as "insane").
In 2012, however, Republicans have suddenly discovered the inner Keynesians within:
Sen. Harry Reid's refusal to "back off" looming cuts to the Pentagon won't just harm the nation's security, Republicans say. It could plunge the fragile U.S. economy back into a recession next year. […]
"Puzzling" was how Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) described Reid's remarks. With CBO's warning, Congress should be looking at every possible option to renew the Bush tax cuts and avoid the automatic, across-the-board cuts to defense and domestic spending.
"The whole point here is to try to get some economic growth, job creation, to get out of this recession," Kyl told POLITICO. "Why would we risk going backward with policy that even CBO says would be the wrong prescription right now?"
Sometimes, I can't help but feel like I'm stuck in a Lewis Carroll novel.
‘The vision thing’ returns
May 27, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
It was reported that President George H.W. Bush's response to the suggestion that he turn his attention away from short-term campaign objectives and focus on the larger picture was "oh, the vision thing." The phrase "the vision thing" has come to personify any politician's failure to incorporate a greater vision in a campaign, and has often been applied by the media to politicians or public figures.
Enter POLITICO today, Mitt Romney not Into ‘vision thing’:
Mitt Romney has made it clear what he’s against.
What he’d be for as president is another question.
The presumptive GOP nominee has some Republicans worried he lacks the “vision thing” that has hurt previous presidential candidates and haunted George H.W. Bush in his quest to succeed Ronald Reagan.
Some GOP officials fear that their nominee for president has so far failed to articulate a clear and compelling plan for the country if he defeats President Barack Obama in November. Instead of framing his ideas in a positive and specific way — like some of his GOP primary challengers — they say Romney must stop solely running a defensive campaign that leaves voters without a clear idea of where he stands.
Ah, but there is also another favorite media meme at play here. Whenever a Democrat disagrees with the party leadership the media villagers instinctively trot out "Democrats are in disarray." Well, the shoe's on the other foot in this POLITICO story. "Republicans are in disarray," in particular, the far-right radical extremists who are still not sold on Willard "Mittens" Romney.
“I don’t know what he’ll do on anything,” Club for Growth President Chris "Count" Chocola told POLITICO. “And that’s, that’s the concern that people have always had is, you don’t truly understand what Mitt Romney is going to do.”
* * *
“At the end of the day, you can’t just be all, you know, anti-Obama,” said former Ohio Secretary of State [and senior fellow at the Family Research Council] Ken Blackwell, whose state is key to Romney’s chances. “It has to be, I think, two parts that and one part here’s the antidote, here’s the vision, here’s the path that I would like to lead America down.”
And GOP strategist Mark McKinnon — who advised former two-term Republican president George W. Bush — said it’s time for Romney to outline his agenda.
“It’s important to establish the problem when you are a challenger because you are asking voters to fire the incumbent. So, Romney has to file his grievances,” McKinnon said. “But at some point he has to show that he has a vision of a better way. He can’t just say ‘The future is bleak, follow me.’ Because no one will.”
Wisconsin Update: The Total Recall/Walkergate Debate (with video)
May 27, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The Associated Press reports on Friday night's Total Recall/Walkergate debate in Wisconsin. Tom Barrett, Scott Walker clash in first Wisconsin governor debate:
Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, down in the polls to Gov. Scott Walker, aggressively went after Walker in a debate Friday and accused him of purposefully dividing the state and triggering the June 5 recall election.
Barrett kept Walker on the defensive throughout much of the hour-long debate in Milwaukee, which was broadcast live statewide just 11 days before the election. Walker is only the nation’s third governor to ever stand for recall. The previous two, most recently California Gov. Gray Davis in 2003, were defeated.
* * *
[Walker] was targeted for recall after successfully passing a law last year that effectively ended collective bargaining for most public workers.
Barrett said that proposal, which sparked massive protests for weeks and made Wisconsin the center of a national debate over collective bargaining powers, tore the state apart.
* * *
“You decided to use a budget crisis to try and divide and conquer this state,” Barrett said, speaking directly to Walker as the two stood near each other behind podiums in a television studio. “That’s what happened. That’s what led to all of this. And you succeeded. You succeeded in dividing this state.”
* * *
Barrett said Walker was determined to wage an “ideological civil war” and punish his enemies, most notably unions that have traditionally backed Democratic candidates.
“I will end this civil war,” Barrett said. “That is something the people of this state want.”
Romney Leading in AZ: Just Don’t Run With an Arizonan on the Ticket
May 27, 2012
by Michael Bryan The latest polling from Public Policy Polling (PDF link) indicates that Romney is leading in Arizona by 7 points (50%-43%), which is within the margin of error (+/-4.4%), but likely represents a small true advantage. I don't find that terribly surprising, given the GOP registration advantage and the strong Mormon population and activation in … Read more
Much more on the Arizona Imagine School firings
May 27, 2012
by
by David Safier
Based on the comments and emails I've received from students and [former] teachers from Imagine Prep at Superstition in Apache Junction, there's lots more to the story about two-thirds of the school's teachers being fired. The Republic covered the story and I posted about it Friday.
I received an email with a few pictures from the student protest. A commenter on the earlier post, apparently a student, posted a long comment which I'm reproducing here in full.
According to the person who sent the photos, this shows students who walked out of the school when they learned about teachers being fired. The police are there, according to the source, because the administration called them, and the police threatened the students with arrest.
This photo shows school uniforms the students ripped up and hung on the fence outside of the school to protest the firings.
Below is a comment on my last post from a student. I've included the entire comment, though you'll have to continue below the fold to read the whole thing. There are a few misspellings and minor errors which I haven't corrected — certainly no more than in the average comment. I thank the student for taking the time and effort to explain what happened. It's a clear, well written, valuable timeline of the events. Others should feel free to comment on it, add to it, or correct anything they believe is an incorrect statement. You may either comment on this post or send me an email: safier@schooltales.net. I keep all correspondence confidential.
Okay, so just to clear things up, this is why/what happened at Imagine Prep Friday morning. Its kind of long, but please read!
The events that occurred were because of an on going struggle between student/teacher and administration/regional receiving and distributing respect. (Regional, for those that do not know, is like the head of the district)
Over this past year, many issues have been handled in shocking ways. It seemed that the only form of punishment was suspension and being aloud to speak on your behalf was out of the question. The lack of respect given to the students was extremely low, and each day the bar was dropping. Many students turned to their teachers to seek comfort or to just simply vent. But once we found out that over half of our teachers were not asked to come back next year, because of their "lack" of commitment for the students, we as a student body knew we must do something.
Arizona Daily Star endorses Ron Barber for Congress
May 27, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie: The Arizona Daily Star has gone out of its way to provide its readers with some of the worst political reporting I have seen in my lifetime. Just check out today's Political Notebook, the political gossip column that I have been praying for a merciful death to since the talentless hack Daniel … Read more
