The investor class aka the predator class in the casino capitalism of Wall Street drove the stock market to unprecedented levels, despite a global pandemic and the recession it created. They bought into the irrational exuberance that the stock market always goes up.
There were those experts who have been warning that Wall Street was creating a bubble since 2020. Economist: Stock Market Clowns Have Blown a ‘Mega-Bubble’ in the Dow.
Now that investor bubble has burst. Michelle Celarier writes, The Clues You Missed: 5 Super-Obvious Signs We Were in a Financial Bubble:
We should have seen it coming. At least that’s what a lot of investors (big-time ones and Robinhood speculators alike) are telling themselves right now with financial assets of all sorts in freefall this year. More than ten years of a bull market, a flood of money from the Federal Reserve, and a new world of technology in everything from money to cars and even art made the future seem limitless. Only now are some people finding out — many of them for the first time — that the laws of the market have not been repealed. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, and rising interest rates are pummeling the markets, and no one knows when it will end.
The S&P 500 — the stock index that most likely is in your 401(k) — is down 19 percent this year to date. That is perilously close to the official definition of a bear market: 20 percent or more from the peak. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ, where the lofty tech names trade, is down 28 percent this year, SPACs and crypto have collapsed, and private markets are seizing up.
Small wonder that searching for the market-top signals most people missed has become a favorite pastime among the financial mavens looking for black humor as a salve for their losses. This list is far from comprehensive, but from crypto to meme stocks to SPACs and beyond, here are some of the tells that are making the rounds among investors.
1. The stadium-naming-rights curse.
Crypto is perhaps the most obvious place to look for missed signals that things had gone too far. For most of last year, bitcoin seemed impervious to the critics who called it a Ponzi scheme and the regulators around the world who threatened or enacted restrictions. In the end, though, the market top in crypto was foretold by one of the most famous curses in a financial bubble market: arena-naming rights.
In early November — just as bitcoin was peaking — the Staples Center in Los Angeles said it would change its name to Crypto.com Arena after selling the rights to crypto.com for $700 million, which ESPN called “the richest naming rights deal in sports history.” That was just months after the crypto exchange FTX bought the naming rights to the Miami arena where the NBA’s Heat play. Such deals have become a red flag to investors who remember that Enron went bust shortly after the high-flying energy firm snagged the rights to name the Houston Astros’ ballpark. The New England Patriots’ stadium outside Boston was, at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, briefly named CMGI Field after a then-high-flying internet incubator — but within a matter of months, everyone agreed that the deal no longer made sense.
Naming-rights deals are “generally the crossroads of hubris and arrogance and management believing their own b.s.,” says former financial journalist Herb Greenberg, who jokes that his decision last summer to abandon a plan to become an activist short seller was also a market-top indicator. After writing research for short sellers for several years, Greenberg crossed over to the long side, taking a job penning stock tips for a financial research firm.
2. Mass-produced monkey cartoons worth billions of dollars.
Then there is the NFT craze. At Anthony Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital SALT convention last September, former hedge-fund manager and current crypto kingpin — though one recently humbled by big losses — Michael Novogratz brought up Jeff Koons’s goofy Balloon Dog sculptures to explain the economic rationale of NFTs, digital tokens on a blockchain that act like a certificate of ownership. “Why is the Balloon Dog worth $30 million? Because we say it is. We’re doing the same thing with NFTs,” said Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, a crypto investment firm.
(No surprise that Koons, a former Wall Street commodities broker who honed those skills to sell his kitsch art, has also jumped into the NFT market.)
But the market-top signal for NFTs came January 5, just days after the stock market peaked. That day, OpenSea, the dominant auction marketplace for NFTs, hit a $13.3 billion valuation. Sales of NFTs have also collapsed, down more than 90 percent since the peak.
Meanwhile, OpenSea is still selling Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs, though prices are way down. And recently, a CryptoPunk NFT that was bought for $1 million six months ago went for $139,000.
While the Koons Balloon Dog comparison might not be completely insane, it’s also a classic example of the kind of thinking that tends to happen at a market top — smart people trying, at some level, to convince themselves that a thing that is clearly way overvalued might actually be undervalued.Read about any bubble in history and this kind of logic becomes commonplace. In the cold, hard light of late May 2022, however, it seems clear enough: A mass-produced cartoon jpeg is not, in fact, a Koons.
Note: These unregulated highly speculative digitial investments are the successor to the unregulated “subprime mortgage” investments from 2008 that collapsed the market, destroyed financial institutions and the economy. Have I mentioned the casino capitalism of Wall Street? Unbridled greed and the unlimited capacity for fraud is the reason for this.
3. Meme stonk slogans in the sky.
The bubble wasn’t only in crypto. The original meme stocks were brick-and-mortar companies GameStop and AMC Entertainment.
But they did not turn out to be the class revenge against Wall Street that captured the media’s attention after retail investors on the sub-Reddit WallStreetBets took down hedge fund Melvin Capital by learning how to squeeze heavily shorted stocks such as GameStop. Although Melvin, which was short GameStop and AMC, failed to recover and is now shutting down, the whole episode is something of a Pyrrhic victory for the Reddit crew. A recent Morgan Stanley report found that retail traders who just began investing in 2020 have been hit the hardest by the recent downturn since the market’s peak.
Should we have seen their demise coming? Perhaps the digital billboards and banners floating from airplanes in the skies above New York and L.A. insisting “AMC We Love the Stock” might have been a clue. These ads, paid for via GoFundMe accounts, began running as the stock hit a high of $60 a share last summer. Even after AMC CEO Adam Aron sold his holdings into the run-up, the AMC Apes continued to believe — and continued running their digital ads, most recently on the side of a mountain. Meanwhile, the stock keeps falling. It is down more than 50 percent this year, to about $12 per share.
“Laughable then, though maybe tragic today,” says Josh Wolfe, a co-founder of the venture-capital firm Lux Capital. “TikTok accounts of young people talking stocks, many of them buying options or investing through Robinhood in record amounts, and it all working for them, which virally induced social proof and their peers to pile in, too — none of them having any clue on how to actually read an annual report, dissect a 10-K or 10-Q, reconcile a cash-flow statement, or explain why WeWork’s ‘Community Adjusted EBITDA’ was basically like fraud.”
4. The SPAC king was ready to fuck shit up.
More than anyone else, VC entrepreneur Chamath Palihapitiya gets credit — and blame — for igniting the mania in special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Palihapitiya’s first SPAC took off when it merged with Richard Branson’s financially strapped spaceship company Virgin Galactic in late 2019. Soon others joined the rocket launch, and Palihapitiya, anointed the “king of SPACs” by Bloomberg, would go on to sponsor ten SPACs.
But on February 21, 2021, just days after the stock prices for SPACs peaked, he shot off an enigmatic tweet: “Im about ready to fuck some shit up…just fyi.” (A Financial Twitter user who goes by the handle @ItaliGino called this tweet the most obvious sign of the top, saying, “This was it … exactly.”)
Although Palihapitiya never made it clear what he was referring to, losing money probably wasn’t what he had in mind. Just three days later, however, he said he was down $1 billion that day alone as SPACs continued their descent. By March 5, Palihapitiya disclosed that he had sold his entire personal stake in Virgin Galactic for a profit of $200 million. The overall SPAC market has been in free fall since then, including the ones that Palihapitiya sponsored. In February, he stepped down as chairman of Virgin Galactic.
5. The capitulation of the skeptics.
As Wall Street lore has it, when the critics give up, the stock market has clearly reached its pinnacle.
During the long bull market, short sellers faced one of their most trying periods ever and quit trying to predict when the market would turn in their favor. Then dozens of short sellers found themselves part of a far-reaching probe by the Justice Department that began last year (but so far has not produced any indictments).
One after another, the shorts retreated. Andrew Left of Citron Research quit writing short reports. A well-known perma-bear hedge-fund manager, Russell Clark, told investors in November that he was shutting down his hedge fund — and did so right before high-flying tech stocks began to fall, just as he had been predicting.
Then, in January, Jim Chanos — who famously called the demise of Enron 20 years ago and has repeatedly referred to the past several years as “the golden age of fraud” — changed his fund’s name from Kynikos Associates to Chanos & Co., quietly shutting down several of his funds and consolidating others.
Although Chanos’s assets had diminished from several billion dollars at their peak to under $300 million by year’s end, the legendary short seller is still in the game. So far, 2022 is looking like a very good year for him.
How long do you think it is going to take the greedy predator class and their investment banks to come to Congress with their hat in their hand seeking yet another government bailout for their reckless behavior in the casino capitalism of Wall Street?
“Stocks dip deeper into bear market ahead of big Fed news”, https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-today-june-14-a5787764c28d57d02b9590b3ee3f4efa
Most stocks on Wall Street dipped Tuesday in their first trading after tumbling into a bear market on worries that high inflation will push central banks to clamp the brakes too hard on the economy [or more accurately, the end of its “easy money” money policies with interest rates at or near zero.]
The S&P 500 fell 14.15, or 0.4%, to 3,735.48 as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday about how sharply it will raise interest rates. It wobbled between losses and gains through the day after a couple big companies flexed financial strength with stronger profits and payouts to shareholders.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 151.91 points, or 0.5%, to 30,364.83. The Nasdaq composite rose 19.12, or 0.2%, to 10,828.35 after swinging between a a loss of 0.7% and a gain of 1.1%.
Despite the swings, trading across markets was still calmer than during Monday’s worldwide rout, which sent the S&P 500 down 3.9%. Stocks fell more than 1% in Tokyo and Paris but rose that much in Shanghai. A measure of nervousness among investors on Wall Street eased, even as Treasury yields again pierced their highest levels in more than a decade.
“No one’s going to take meaningful positions today ahead of what could be a rip-roaring day” with the Fed’s announcement, said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.
[The] Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate on Wednesday by a larger-than-usual amount. Investors are now mostly expecting the biggest increase since 1994, a hike of three-quarters of a percentage point, or triple the usual amount.
-Stay tuned for Wednesday’s Fed announcement.
“Coinbase to Lay Off 18% of Workers as Crypto Winter Worsens”, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/coinbase-to-lay-off-18-of-workers-as-crypto-downturn-worsens?srnd=premium
Coinbase Global Inc. announced Tuesday it will lay off 18% of its workforce in another sign of a worsening crypto downturn that’s shaved off hundreds of millions of the total cryptocurrency market value.
The U.S.’s biggest crypto exchange is following in the footsteps of other cryptocurrency-related businesses that have recently cut staff, including rival exchange Gemini Trust Co. and lender BlockFi Inc., both of which cited the arrival of a crypto winter — a prolonged downturn — as the reason for the layoffs.
Laid off employees will receive a minimum of 3.5 months of severance, plus two weeks for every year of employment.
The cryptocurrency downturn began soon after Bitcoin hit its all-time-high in November. Earlier this year, the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin and related Luna token erased billions of market gains. In the past week, coin prices plunged after crypto lender Celsius Network froze withdrawals amidst what many suspect was a bank-run-like event.
“Celsius Network Leads Crypto Markets Into Another Free Fall”, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/technology/bitcoin-ether-price.html
The offer seemed too good to pass up: Deposit your cryptocurrency, and receive a yield as high as 18 percent.
That was the promise of Celsius Network, an experimental cryptocurrency bank with more than one million customers that emerged as a leader in the murky world of decentralized finance, or DeFi. Last year, DeFi exploded into a $100 billion industry, attracting both venture capital firms and regular investors with the prospect of lightning-fast gains. Celsius was managing more than $20 billion in assets.
But on Sunday night, as cryptocurrency prices slid, Celsius became the latest crypto venture to spiral into a crisis, announcing that it was freezing withdrawals “due to extreme market conditions.”
The announcement sent the market into a meltdown, as Celsius customers wondered whether they would be able to get their deposits back. Bitcoin is down 15 percent over the last 24 hours, falling to about $23,000, its lowest value since December 2020, according to CoinMarketCap, an industry price tracker. Ether, the second-most valuable cryptocurrency, is down about 16 percent.
The crash extends a dire period for cryptocurrencies, illustrating in graphic terms the risks of these experimental investments. Just a month ago, the implosion of a popular coin helped trigger a crypto meltdown that erased $300 billion in value across the market. The back-to-back crashes have fueled criticism that many of the complex crypto banking and lending projects known as DeFi are high-risk schemes teetering on the brink of ruin.
“DeFi is a house of cards,” said Cory Klippsten, the chief executive of Swan Bitcoin, a financial services firm focused on Bitcoin. “It’s speculation on speculation, and there’s no real-world use case for any of this stuff.”
DeFi exploded into the mainstream in 2021, as the prices of Bitcoin and Ether surged and crypto became a cultural phenomenon. Many customers were drawn to the potential for astronomical gains from complex crypto lending projects.
[Celcius] has encountered its share of problems. For months, critics have wondered how it could sustain such dramatic yields without putting its depositors’ funds in jeopardy through risky investments. The company has drawn scrutiny from several state regulators, and its chief financial officer was arrested in Israel as part of a fraud investigation unrelated to Celsius.
“For Celsius, like the rest of the crypto marketplace, there exists no regulatory oversight, no consumer protections, no net capital requirements,” said John Reed Stark, a former Securities and Exchange Commission official and a vocal critic of the industry. “It’s not just the Wild West — it’s global financial anarchy.”
[W]ith the prices of Bitcoin and Ether already tumbling, Celsius announced on Sunday that it was freezing withdrawals. The company declined to comment. But it said in the statement on its website that it had activated a clause in its terms of use that allowed it to take that step.
“Basically, this is like a bank run,” said Campbell Harvey, a Duke University professor and an author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” “What I’m seeing is what appears to be a failure of risk management.”
Celsius is one of a number of DeFi start-ups that are coming under intense scrutiny as crypto prices drop.
The crash in May was accelerated by the collapse of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin with a fixed price pegged to the U.S. dollar. The coin’s $1 peg was underpinned by complex financial engineering that linked it to a sister cryptocurrency called Luna. When the price of Luna plummeted in May, TerraUSD fell in tandem — a “death spiral” that destabilized the broader market.
Hilary Allen, a finance expert at American University, said the Terra and Celsius crises showed that the fate of crypto investments — long hailed as part of a decentralized marketplace — actually hinge on the management choices of individual founders.
“Investors have relied on comforting tweets from founders like Terra’s Do Kwon and Celsius’s Mashinsky while things were heading south,” Ms. Allen said, “but then found themselves trapped in increasingly worthless positions once the founders make the decision to shut down.”