Bills have been introduced in the state legislature to deal with an alleged shoplifting epidemic especially by retail gangs. The problem is it’s not true and even if it were, it’s the wrong solution.
Shoplifting has increased but you cannot look at year-on-year changes because shoplifting decreased 60% during the pandemic. The pandemic dramatically increased online shopping which now makes it easier to fence items. The estimate is that 10% of goods sold online are stolen. Stores have restructured and put tempting items near exits. Clerks no longer stand between the item and the door as they are replaced with DIY stations.
A story from CNN quotes articles from the 1990s that sound like today. “Anxiety over shoplifting is an enduring phenomenon and is often a stand-in for larger concerns of cultural, economic or political changes.” The point of the panic is to whip up concerns about law and order, urban decline, and keeping minorities in their place (or in prison).
During the 19th century in Britain, fears were focused on women who were out in the public for the first-time defying authority. During the counterculture years of the 1960s and 1970s, fears were focused on teens and college students defying authority. Today it’s people of color defying authority.
“Although shoplifting increased in some cities during the first half of the year compared to pre-pandemic levels, there is no clear national rise in shoplifting, according to a new analysis by the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan criminal justice policy organization.” Yet both Republicans and Democrats are grasping their pearls or other jewels and suggesting “tough on crime” responses including death.
Retailers claim “shrink” increased but that also includes employee theft, damaged products, administrative errors, vendor fraud, and other factors. Retailers also cry “organized retail crime” but a Council on Criminal Justice analysis of shoplifting reports found that more than 95% of shoplifting is done by one or two people. Only .1% involved more than six people.
Retailers and political leaders are advocating for policing and incarceration as a solution. Legislators are seeking to reverse criminal justice reforms and mandate cash bail. But we have known for a century that tougher criminal policies do not deter crime, according to the Department of Justice. “Research shows clearly that the chance of being caught is a vastly more effective deterrent than even draconian punishment.” Additionally, there is no evidence linking bail reform to increases in crime.
In a March 11, 2024 article, the National Retail Federation claims that external theft is up by 26%. They lay the blame on the failure of prosecution. Arresting shoplifters doesn’t help that. But the Retail Industry Leaders Association reported one-third less theft meaning it wasn’t up at all. Greedflation also increased the value of items, so value is not a reliable measure.
The Marshall Project looked for data and trends and found none. They also found that few people commit new crimes while out on parole. But without any data, legislators want to enact tougher penalties that are known to be ineffective. According to the Southern Methodist University Business School that would double the number of arrests of Blacks compared to whites and 20% more Hispanics than whites.
Income inequality negatively affects crime rates i.e. the wider the income inequality the more crime. A World Bank study found that it is causative – inequality increases crime rates. Conversely, a postive economic growth rate decreases crime.
Inequality in the U.S. has been climbing dramatically since the 1970s until now the U.S. is the third most unequal country in the world and Number 1 in terms of inequality growth. We also have the highest prison population of any nation in the world.
Yet the last 8 years have seen a decline in property crimes and the last 4 years a decline in violent crimes. Contrary to breathless exclamations, there is no tide of rising crime.
Despite that, lawmakers have introduced bills to increase the penalty for many crimes. HB2435 that has passed the House would make thieves repetitive offenders subject to higher sentences. SB1613 that passed the Senate would allow private arrest of alleged shoplifters. Imagine the consequences. A private person accosts you when you leave a store and accuses you of shoplifting. An argument ensues. The guns come out. Someone dies. Teenager Amarion Hope in Avondale was shot dead after allegations of shoplifting. No stolen articles were found on him or in his possessions. He’s still dead.
We know how to provide motivation to change – actions addressing income inequality. If you want to reduce crime further, pay better wages; provide pensions and health coverage at work; create education and training; support families that need daycare, health care, and decent housing. These bills when introduced in the legislature fall into a black hole to be torn apart by the forces of gravity that are tearing our country apart for profit and ideology.
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The GQP/GOP only has fear and chaos. Crime committed by dark skinned boogeyman and indoctrination of LGBTQ+ lifestyles is their core principle and policy stand. Look at people like “JGCK” who, after too many years in LE, drinking the orange kool aid, sees anyone and everyone as a threat.