Democrats arrive late, but ‘blue wave’ momentum is building

Anyone who has ever been active in Democratic Party politics knows that Democrats always arrive late and no event ever starts on time.

After a slow start in early mail-in ballot returns in the first couple of weeks of early voting, for which I chastised you, Democrats finally started showing up late in the final week of early voting. Keep it up through Election Day.

Arizona Democrats have seen a massive surge in early voting over the past week, bolstering predictions for a “blue wave” in Tuesday’s elections. ‘The blue wave is real’: Arizona Democrats see major surge in early voting turnout:

Early ballot returns released Friday [Secretary of State Early Ballot Statistics] show Democrats are on track to narrow the voter-participation gap with Republicans to its lowest level in any midterm election in recent history.

That surge in Democratic participation could help the party flip close races or win contests for the U.S. Senate, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction.

Democrats had significantly lagged Republicans when early ballot returns started coming in three weeks ago, leading some to speculate that the blue wave had crested.

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But that changed over the past week as Democrats shaved the GOP’s early-vote advantage to less than 8 percentage points. Republicans typically have a 12 percentage-point turnout edge in midterm elections.

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The Arizona Republic endorses Katie Hobbs for Secretary of State

Any rational person looking at their choices for Secretary of State would make this choice, but when has anyone accused Arizonans of being rational?

Too many Arizona voters are low information voters who vote out of GOP tribalism for anyone with an “R” behind his or her name. This is how we have wound up with the long-running GOP culture of corruption in Arizona with bad politicians doing bad things because they are given a pass to get away with it by an indifferent electorate. This is what Republican candidate Steve Gaynor is banking on. He has indicated that he would do things, if elected, that would land the state in court, again.

The Arizona Republic today endorses Democratic state Senator Katie Hobbs for Secretary of State. She is by far the most qualified candidate for Secretary of State, and will do the job professionally and responsibly. Why the unknown is so scary in Arizona’s secretary of state race:

The most competitive race for statewide office now looks to be the one for Arizona secretary of state.

Millions of dollars are being spent, much of which was once earmarked for the gubernatorial race. And that doesn’t include the more than $1.5 million Republican Steve Gaynor spent of his own money to trounce incumbent Michele Reagan in the primary.

The extra cash has elevated, and perhaps oversized, an office that’s charged largely with carrying out elections.

But why are the stakes so high now?

What if one becomes governor?

Part of it has to do with Arizona’s line of succession. Three times in the past three decades, the secretary of state has ascended to governor — the most recent in 2009 when Jan Brewer succeeded Janet Napolitano after Napolitano was tapped to become the head of the Department of Homeland Security.

Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs is a former leader at the Sojourner Center, a large non-profit serving abused women, who as a state lawmaker was a consistent voice for women and children services. As Senate minority leader, Hobbs was a steady hand who found occasional bipartisanship on issues such as Medicaid expansion and unclogging the backlog of untested sexual-assault kits.

Republican Steve Gaynor, meanwhile, is a cipher. He is a businessman who until late last year participated in politics largely as a Republican donor. In a meeting with The Republic‘s editorial board, he gave few specifics on what he would do to reform the office and displayed little passion for it — he said he was recruited by a handful of  Republicans who were unhappy with Michele Reagan.

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Steve Gaynor raises red flags in Secretary of State race

There has not been much good reporting on Steve Gaynor, the Republican candidate for Secretary of State who ousted Secretary of State Michele Reagan in the Arizona GOP primary, but what little I have seen reported raises red flags about this guy seeing his role as the chief elections officer in Arizona as classic GOP voter suppression in the tradition of Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, both of whom are running for governor in November.

Earlier this year, Secretary of State Michelle Reagan settled a lawsuit over Arizona’s bifurcated dual voter registration system for those who use the federal voter registration form.

Gaynor focused his criticism on the aspect of the settlement that requires the state to register voters for federal elections even if they use the state form. He said Michelle Reagan should not have settled and fought the issue all the way to the Supreme Court, if necessary.

I covered this at length in an earlier post. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach had his ass handed to him in federal court over this same issue. So much for this litigation criticism.  Michelle Reagan is terrible, but Steve Gaynor fancies himself the next Kris Kobach. (Kansas and Arizona were the only two states who maintained this practice).

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Preliminary Primary Results: State Offices

 Votes are still being counted, but the primary election is mostly over. Some races are still as yet too close to call.

According to the Secretary of State, voter turnout was a shamefully pathetic 25.82%. You are an embarrassment to democracy, Arizona. You have to start doing better.

Incumbent Secretary of State Michelle Reagan, incumbent Corporation Commissioner Tom Forese, and apparently incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Dianne Douglas, three highly controversial figures, have been defeated in their GOP primary.

Citizens Clean Elections candidate (CCE).

Arizona Legislature

District 1

Jo Craycraft (D) Senate (CCE)
Karen Fann (R) Senate

Ed Gogek (D) House (CCE)
Jan Manolis (D) House (CCE)
Noel Campbell (R) House
David Stringer (R) House

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AZ Primary Election results – Southern Arizona Dem races

CD 1  Tom O’Halleran, incumbent   52,986

CD 2 (open seat)

Dr. Matt Heinz     20,704

Ann Kirkpatrick   28,046

Billy Kovacs   4118

Mary Matiella   6163

Barbara Sherry  1,766

Bruce Wheeler  5,900

Yahya Yuksel  1062

CD 3  Raul Grijalva, incumbent  16,018

 

LD  2   Senate  Andrea Dalessandro (incumbent)  14,179

LD 2 House (2 seats)  AZ SOS site has different figure than Pima County/Santa Cruz County for Gabaldon

Rosanna Gabaldon (incumbent, House)  10,924

Daniel Hernandez Jr. (incumbent, House)  10,505

LD  3 Senate  (open seat)

Sally Gonzales  8691

Betty Villegas   6994

LD 3 House  (2 open seats)  — too close to call

Olivia Cajero Bedford  7884

Andres Cano  8456

Alma Hernandez  8160

LD 9  Senate (open seat)

Jim Love  4265

Victoria Steele  19,474

LD 9 House (2 seats)

Dr. Randy Friese (incumbent)  16,780

Pam Powers Hannley (incumbent)  15,782

JP Martin  4286

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