The Climate Crisis is Already Here: Latest Bad News

The Washington Post reported, Humans have pushed the climate into ‘unprecedented’ territory, landmark U.N. report finds.

The New York Times reported, A Hotter Future Is Certain, Climate Panel Warns. But How Hot Is Up to Us.

Don’t sugar coat it. The Daily Beast succinctly says it like it is: UN Climate Experts to the World: We’re Already Fucked:

There is no question that record heatwaves in North America and southern Europe, which sparked wildfires that destroyed thousands of homes and burnt through millions of acres of forests, are worrying. But according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC report released Monday morning there is a far worse dilemma on the horizon: the Arctic is melting three times faster than anyone thought—their first update since 2013. “It’s just guaranteed that it’s going to get worse,” Linda Mearns, a senior climate scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research who co-authored the report said at its release. “I don’t see any area that is safe … Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.”

The 3,949-page IPCC report, which directly points a finger at humans for not heeding ample warnings over the climate change, says there is no more time to waste and, in fact, it might already be too late to save low-lying areas now threatened by rising seas. “We’ve known for decades that the world is warming, but this report tells us that recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying—unprecedented in thousands of years,” Ko Barrett, IPCC vice chair said ahead of the report’s release. “The bottom line is that unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C—or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit—will be beyond reach.”

The authors create five scenarios—essentially all bad—based on how even if world leaders start adhering to the 2015 Paris climate agreement things won’t get better, calling the current situation a “code red for humanity.”

The report says the Paris Agreement target to lower the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees by the mid-2030s is a long shot and instead the climate is heading in the wrong direction. Instead of dropping, the global temperature has inched up by 1.1 degrees and will likely top a 2 degree increase with devastating results. “We’re passing 2 degrees somewhere between the early 2040s and early 2050s as a most likely estimate in the higher-emission scenarios,” Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist and the director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute told Wired after the report was released.

The report, which encompasses more than 14,000 pieces of scientific evidence sifted through by hundreds of climate experts, focuses on human indifference—and arrogance. “Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years,” one section head warns under which the experts say this warming has “already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.”

Those extremes are being played out in California where the Dixie fires is now the second largest in the history of the state and homing in on a national park. Across the Atlantic, in Greece, fires have skirted up against the ancient city of Athens and are destroying much of nearby island of Evia, where 2,000 people have been evacuated. Whole villages have been completely destroyed and firefighters from across Europe have aided in what has been so far an impossible battle to gain control. Greece has experienced record breaking temperatures nearing 113 degrees. Fires have also wreaked havoc in Italy, which is undergoing a major heatwave authorities warn could reignite many of the blazes in Sicily that have been brought under control.

But the melting Arctic, which poses the greatest threat because of the extent to which it will cause seas to rise, is the real worry, says Isla Myers-Smith, a global change ecologist with the University of Edinburgh. “As more ice melts, it exposes the darker land underneath, which further heats the region, leading to more melting,” she warns.

No matter what is done to try to turn the situation around, the report confirms that we are “locked in” to a rise of 6 to 12 inches of sea level by mid century, according to co-author Bob Kopp of Rutgers University. They will continue to warm and become more acidic fed by mountain and polar glaciers that will continue melting for decades, or even centuries. And that will flood cities like Venice and other low lying coastal areas. Over the weekend, Venice was inundated by a rare summer high water—the first of its kind since 1995.

But the worst takeaway from the extensive report meant to jolt policy makers into action is that it is clearly humanity’s fault. The report concludes that nearly all the horrific effects of climate change are blamed on emission of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide and methane. And reducing those emissions is the only chance at our survival. “Anything we can do to limit, to slow down, is going to pay off,” co-author Maisia Rojas Corrada, director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research in Chile. “And if we cannot get to 1.5, it’s probably going to be painful, but it’s better not to give up.”

Here in the American desert Southwest, we are already in critical condition. People — Not Just The Megadrought — Are Driving The West’s Water Crisis:

For decades, the Lake Powell and Lake Mead reservoirs, which bracket the Grand Canyon, have been the major savings accounts for water in the Western United States. Built on the Colorado River, the country’s two largest reservoirs have enabled Western farms and cities from Los Angeles to Denver to have a stable water supply throughout a relentless 21-year megadrought. But today, Lake Powell and Lake Mead are hovering at close to 33% of their full capacity, historic lows not seen since the dams were first built. If water levels drop to 22% and 15%, respectively, the dams can no longer generate hydropower. If they fall to 8%, they will become “dead pools,” meaning water cannot continue being delivered. This would trigger an urgent water crisis for the 40 million people who depend on the Colorado River.

But the current water crisis isn’t only being driven by the megadrought. A century of basing policies and development on an overestimate of how much water was actually in the Colorado River to begin with — and betting on more years with heavy snow and rainfall — started us on the path toward our current water shortages. And the last two decades of megadrought in the Southwest — amplified by a warming climate — have hit the fast-forward button.

River managers and policymakers have until 2026 to replace temporary drought contingency plans with a long-term plan for the river that replenishes, rather than drains, the reservoirs. What they decide has implications for almost every major Western city, 30 Native American tribes, 5.5 million acres of farmland, and northern Mexico.

For most people, the deepening white bathtub rings around Western reservoirs have come to symbolize the drought. For Martin and a growing number of scientists, policymakers, and water managers working to solve the crisis, the rings are a reminder of how people are failing to acknowledge that we are collectively using water in a way that is causing the Colorado River to run dry.

[In] the 20th century, building infrastructure projects to move Colorado River water to cities and farms and relying on water collected during years with more precipitation took precedence over making difficult decisions to curb water usage. That trend continues today, with the 2020 US census showing that Utah, Nevada, and Arizona — which all rely on river water — are in the top 10 fastest-growing states in the country, even though they’re also among the driest.

That there is less river water to divide in reality than what is allocated on paper is not a message residents in desert climates or their politicians want to hear, since access to water enables development. But some scientists argue the megadrought is not temporary and is instead a sign of a longer-term drying out of the region. That raises questions about how much the river will shrink in the future, and exactly how much — and where — we need to curb demand.

“Given the fact that the reservoirs are a third full, you’re asking for a really hard, difficult, unprecedented conversation with a ticking clock,” said Jack Schmidt, a river scientist at Utah State University. “We are in a crisis now. Let’s not kid ourselves. The question is, how intense does that crisis get? Everything we are seeing suggests there may not be enough time for the incremental approach to change, which has always worked in the past.”

[W]hile the Colorado River has cycled through wet and dry years, the last two decades are the driest the basin has seen in 1,200 years.

Other studies looking at the future suggest climate change is only going to make the West hotter and drier.

“As warming continues, the Colorado River will continue to shrink,” said Colorado State University senior water and climate scientist Brad Udall, who has spent years studying how hotter temperatures are impacting natural inflows of water to the Colorado River. His research indicates that for every degree Celsius that the temperature increases, the Colorado River loses 3 to 10% of its natural inflow. A 2020 study by US Geological Survey hydrologists was more grim, setting losses at 9.3% per degree Celsius of temperature increase.

“Stabilizing this system during a period of declining flows is going to involve reducing our demands and having robust plans in place,” said Udall. “Specificity is where it gets tough.”

In July, federal officials took unprecedented emergency action to stabilize water levels at Lake Powell, releasing water from smaller upstream reservoirs. This allows Powell to continue generating hydropower, but it’s a temporary solution: Releases are only scheduled through December. Deeper cuts for 2022 are expected to be announced in mid-August, which will affect Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico, all states that signed agreements to cut their water use. But some worrisome projections suggest we could hit reservoir levels that are within 5 feet of triggering even deeper cuts that would affect residents in major cities such as Phoenix.

The only other major water source for most desert states sharing the river is groundwater, a nonrenewable resource. In Arizona, groundwater levels in many counties are already stressed by drought and growing demand. Cochise County, where wells are running dry, provides a glimpse of the types of disruptions that may soon become far more widespread across the West.

This month alone, Wracked by drought, California will cut water for many farmers. (Facing an acute and growing drought, California will reduce the amount of water that farmers in the state’s agricultural heartland are allowed to draw from its largest rivers, officials announced this week.)

The nation’s food supply is at risk. California is Largest Food Producer in the U.S. (California is the largest producer of food despite having less than 4% of the farms in the country; California is also the world’s 5th largest supplier of food).

The West’s hydroelectric energy supply is at risk. Major California hydroelectric plant forced to shut down as severe drought continues (California officials said in a statement that the Hyatt Power Plant was taken offline after water levels at Lake Oroville, located next to the plant, fell to slightly above 640 feet, or lowest in decades. That is just over the 630-to-640-feet level needed to produce power. The lowered water levels are due to a severe drought caused by climate change, officials said.)

How long before Hoover Dam at Lake Mead on the Colorado River needs to be taken off line?

‘Red alert’: Lake Mead falls to lowest water level since Hoover Dam’s construction in 1930s.

Lake Powell farther upstream from Lake Mead is faring no better. Lake Powell water levels dip to record lows, leaving tourists and businesses scrambling​​​​​​​:

A thick, white band of newly exposed rock face stretches high above boaters’ heads at Lake Powell, creating a sharp contrast against the famous red desert terrain as their vessels weave through tight canyons that were once underwater.

It’s a stark reminder of how far the water level has fallen at the massive reservoir on the Utah-Arizona border. Last year, it was more than 50 feet (15 meters) higher. The level at the popular destination for houseboat vacations is at a historic low amid a  megadrought engulfing the U.S. West.

Houseboat rental companies had to cancel their bookings through August – one of their most popular months – after the National Park Service, which manages the lake, barred people from launching the vessels in mid-July.

Lake Powell is the second-largest reservoir in the USA, right behind Lake Mead, which also stores water from the Colorado River. Both are shrinking faster than expected, a dire concern for a seven-state region that relies on the river to supply water to 40 million people and a $5 billion-a-year agricultural industry.

They are among several large bodies of water in the West that have hit record lows this summer, including the Great Salt Lake in Utah. Utah’s Great Salt Lake drops to lowest level ever recorded. California’s more than 1,500 reservoirs are 50% lower than they should be this time of year.

The Arctic melt is far more dangerous than just rising sea levels. Scientists expected thawing wetlands in Siberia’s permafrost. What they found is ‘much more dangerous.’

Scientists have long been worried about what many call “the methane bomb” — the potentially catastrophic release of methane from thawing wetlands in Siberia’s permafrost.

But now a study by three geologists says that a heat wave in 2020 has revealed a surge in methane emissions “potentially in much higher amounts” from a different source: thawing rock formations in the Arctic permafrost.

The difference is that thawing wetlands releases “microbial” methane from the decay of soil and organic matter, while thawing limestone — or carbonate rock — releases hydrocarbons and gas hydrates from reservoirs both below and within the permafrost, making it “much more dangerous” than past studies have suggested.

The study was published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The Permian-Triassic extinction event some 252 million years ago, known colloquially as “The Great Dying,”wiped out nearly 90 percent of the planet’s species, including about 96 percent of ocean dwellers and 70 percent of terrestrial animals. Earth’s worst-ever mass extinction of life holds ‘apocalyptic’ warning about climate change, say scientists:

According to a paper published in the journal Palaeoworld, volcanic eruptions pumped large amounts of carbon dioxide into the air, causing average temperatures to rise by eight to 11°C.

This melted vast amounts of methane that had been trapped in the permafrost and sea floor, causing temperatures to soar even further to levels “lethal to most life on land and in the oceans”.

“Based on measurements of gases trapped in [the mineral] calcite, the release of methane … is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming … observed at the end Permian.

“Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate [its frozen state] may be apocalyptic.

Equally apocalyptic: A critical ocean system may be heading for collapse due to climate change, study finds:

Human-caused warming has led to an “almost complete loss of stability” in the system that drives Atlantic Ocean currents, a new study has found — raising the worrying prospect that this critical aquatic “conveyor belt” could be close to collapse.

In recent years, scientists have warned about a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to northern Europe and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor. Researchers who study ancient climate change have also uncovered evidence that the AMOC can turn off abruptly, causing wild temperature swings and other dramatic shifts in global weather systems.

Scientists haven’t directly observed the AMOC slowing down. But the new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change, draws on more than a century of ocean temperature and salinity data to show significant changes in eight indirect measures of the circulation’s strength.

These indicators suggest that the AMOC is running out of steam, making it more susceptible to disruptions that might knock it out of equilibrium, said study author Niklas Boers, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

If the circulation shuts down, it could bring extreme cold to Europe and parts of North America, raise sea levels along the U.S. East Coast and disrupt seasonal monsoons that provide water to much of the world.

[H]igher temperatures make ocean waters warmer and lighter. An influx of freshwater from melting ice sheets and glaciers dilutes North Atlantic’s saltiness, reducing its density. If these waters aren’t heavy enough to sink, the entire AMOC will shut down.

It’s happened before. Studies suggest that toward the end of the last ice age, a massive glacial lake burst through a declining North American ice sheet. The flood of freshwater spilled into the Atlantic, halting the AMOC and plunging much of the Northern Hemisphere — especially Europe — into deep cold. Gas bubbles trapped in polar ice indicate the cold spell lasted 1,000 years. Analyses of plant fossils and ancient artifacts suggest that the climate shift transformed ecosystems and threw human societies into upheaval.

[In] its 2019 “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate,” the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected that the AMOC would weaken during this century, but total collapse within the next 300 years was only likely under the worst-case warming scenarios.

The new analysis suggests “the critical threshold is most likely much closer than we would have expected,” Boers said.

The “restoring forces,” or feedback loops, that keep the AMOC churning are in decline, he said. All the indicators analyzed in his study — including sea surface temperature and salt concentrations — have become increasingly variable.

It’s as though the AMOC is a patient newly arrived in the emergency room, and Boers has provided scientists with an assessment of its vital signs, de Menocal said. “All the signs are consistent with the patient having a real mortal problem.”

[T]he apparent consequences of the AMOC slowing are already being felt. A persistent “cold blob” in the ocean south of Greenland is thought to result from less warm water reaching that region. The lagging Gulf Stream has caused exceptionally high sea level rise along the U.S. East Coast. Key fisheries have been upended by the rapid temperature swings, and beloved species are struggling to cope with the changes.

If the AMOC does completely shut down, the change would be irreversible in human lifetimes, Boers said. The “bi-stable” nature of the phenomenon means it will find new equilibrium in its “off” state. Turning it back on would require a shift in the climate far greater than the changes that triggered the shutdown.

“It’s one of those events that should not happen, and we should try all that we can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible,” Boers said. “This is a system we don’t want to mess with.”

It may already be too late, we’re past the tipping point. As The Daily Beast said, “We’re already fucked.”