AZ Congressional Delegation

A Pyrrhic Victory in Arizona Congressional District 8 for Republicans

by
Hiral Tepernini and Debbie Lesko
Dr. Hiral Tepernini got 82,318 votes, or 47.4%, but lost closely to Debbie Lesko, who got 91,390 votes, or 52.6%.

There was only one bit of good news for Republicans in the Arizona Congressional District Eight Election yesterday evening. Their candidate, soon to be Freedom Caucus Member Debbie Lesko, did win. Everything else was bad news for them. The reasons are as follows:

  • President Trump won this district by 21 points. Lesko won by only a little over five. The Democrat, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, and her team ran an excellent race, campaigning on health care, retirement security, and funding public education. She made inroads among Republicans and Independents outperforming how Secretary Clinton did in virtually every precinct.
  • The Democrats put up a fight. Dr. Tipirneni was the first Democrat to fight for this seat in six years. She and her people are smart and should learn how to build on their performance last night just in time for the electoral rematch this  November.
  • Enthusiasm is with the Democrats and Progressives for a variety of reasons ranging from an awakening for progressive solutions and disenchantment/disgust with what the President and his allies on the national and state stage offer.
  • The Republicans spent over a $1,000,000 in a “safe” district. The Democrats are probably hoping they drain their bank accounts on more of these “safe” districts. With her performance, Dr. Tipireni will probably get more attention from the National Party and small donors who see a very “gettable” seat in November.
  • This was the most conservative district in the State. Imagine what other strong Democrats can do, if recruited, in the other Congressional Districts in Arizona.

Read more

New Poll: Sinema Beats McSally, Ward or Arpaio in US Senate Race

by

Sinema vs McSally, Ward, Arpaio

Regardless who the Republicans choose as their candidate for the Arizona US Senate seat, a new poll shows Democratic Congress member Kyrsten Sinema winning against them.

The survey by OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 says that the key reason is independent voters, who have a very negative view of GOP leader President Trump, and the negative view that voters in general have of Republicans Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, and Martha McSally.

And this is despite the 12% advantage that the GOP has (1,223,219 registered Republicans) over Democrats (1,090,310 registered Democrats) in Arizona. The survey sample reflected the Republican +12-point advantage over Democrats.

Democrats are unified

“The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Mike Noble, managing partner at OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix. “The factors to look for will be if there are enough voters that do not view Trump favorably that still vote the Republican party.”

The survey did not mention Democrat Deedra Abboud, an attorney and Muslim-American community activist, whom Sinema faces in the August 28 primary.

Read more

Tea-Publicans are trying to change the vacancy in office law to protect Senator John McCain’s seat

by

Tea-Publicans in the Arizona legislature are trying to change the long-established law on vacancies occurring in office for U.S. Senate in the event that Senator John McCain steps down or dies early, triggering a special election for his Senate seat this year.

The Arizona Capitol Times reports Arizona Senate moves to change rules for replacing McCain:

The Republican-controlled Arizona Legislature is moving to ensure that ailing Sen. John McCain’s seat isn’t on the November ballot if he leaves office, but Democrats plan to block the effort.

The effort emerged Tuesday as the state Senate put an emergency clause on a bill, HB 2538, changing how members of Congress who die or resign are replaced.

U.S. Senate vacancies are filled by a governor’s appointee, with the seat on the next general election ballot. The secretary of state has interpreted that to mean that if McCain’s seat is vacated by May 31, it would be on the August primary and November general election ballot. The new proposal changes that to 150 days before the primary, or March 31 of this year. That takes McCain’s seat out of play.

McCain was diagnosed with brain cancer last summer and has been recovering in Arizona since before Christmas. He was hospitalized over the weekend for intestinal surgery needed to stem an infection and remains in a Phoenix hospital in stable condition.

The emergency clause requires a two-thirds vote, and Democratic Sen. Steve Farley said that won’t happen.

“They’re trying to make it really easy to appoint someone to two and a half years without an election to a U.S. Senate seat should the current holder of that Senate seat resign or no longer be able to hold office,” Farley said. “The thing is, we’re all going to vote against it as Democrats, so they won’t get their emergency. It’s silly for them to put it on and think we won’t notice.”

Read more

Democrats are back in the fight for the Arizona Eighth Congressional District: All Bets are Off.

by
Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, Democratic Candidate for the Eighth Congressional District.

In the 2014 and 2016 Elections for Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District, Representative Trent Franks had no Democratic Opponent and easily cruised to victory in both elections. Now, thanks to Representative Frank’s resignation because of his unique interpretation of family values (asking two unwilling women on his staff to be surrogate mothers for his wife and even offering one money), the Eighth Congressional District is potentially up for grabs in a special election being held on Tuesday, April 24. The two candidates are Dr. Hiral Tipirneni for the Democrats and Debbie Lesko for the Republicans. As Democrats, with a strong viable candidate, mount a credible campaign, conservatives in Republican World are increasingly worried of another “Pennsylvania Congressional 18TH District” upset in an area that went for the President by just over 20 points, was a stronghold for the embattled former Sheriff of Maricopa County Joe Arpaio, and contains Sun City within its boundaries. According to Bill Roe, the First Vice Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, this April 24 election will all come down to turnout among Democrats, Independents favorable to Dr. Tipirneni, fatigued Republicans disenchanted with their party, and the newly arrived populace in the district that no one knows how they will decide.

Read more

GOP Strategist Says Republicans May Lose in Races Across Arizona

by
Republican Strategist Sam Stone
Republican Strategist Sam Stone

Speaking on KVOI radio 1030 in Tucson, Republican strategist Sam Stone says there may be statewide losses for Republican candidates in the mid-term elections.

“I do think we’re heading into something of a [blue] wave. … If you’re in Wisconsin and other states, Democrats have been undervoting in the last three cycles now and they’re going to come out, absolutely. The question is, are Republicans? So far, the answer in the special elections has been ‘no.’ We’re fat and happy with the presidency,” he said. 

Stone is Chief of staff of Republican City Councilman Sal DiCiccio in Phoenix and a former campaign advisor to Martha McSally. He was interviewed on the John C. Scott political forum, which is now on the radio Saturdays 4 to 6 pm.

Asked if there will be a “blue wave” in Arizona, he said, “potentially a little bit.” He said Democrats may win the races for Secretary of State and Superintendent of Public Instruction.

The race for in Tucson’s CD2

He foresees a Republican defeat in Tucson’s Congressional District 2, even as he sneered, “the Democratic bench that is running in CD2 is pretty pathetically weak. You’ve got a carpetbagger and a bunch of people who Lea Marquez Peterson would normally slaughter. Whoever comes out of that may well win that race.”

The leading Republican contender is Lea Marquez-Peterson, the CEO of several Hispanic chambers of commerce and owner of bankrupt gas stations. See Fear Dominates Secret Tucson GOP CD 2 Congressional Candidate Forum.

Though people disagree, former congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick is seen as the Democratic front-runner in a primary contest with Mary Matiella, Billy Kovacs, Bruce Wheeler, Matt Heinz, Babara Sherry and others.

Stone said president Trump’s “waned popularity” is a problem for Marquez-Peterson. “Lea has the advantage of clarity that didn’t exist for Martha McSally in the last three years. … The electorate that first elected Martha McSally [in 2014], both in both the Republican primary and general election, is not the electorate that is enamored of Trump. You can run away from him. The electorate that is enamored of him is about 40% of the Republican primary base. She [Marquez-Peterson] has a relatively open primary, she really is not contested very much. So for her, doesn’t need to stray into Trump territory.”

President Trump’s base is “30% of the Republican primary base, and it incredibly strong with him. The rest of the folks who went along [with Trump] voted against Hillary Clinton and for Neil Gorsuch and for a conservative majority supreme court. If he continues to ignore and really inflame larger swaths of the country, those folks aren’t necessarily with him, that voted for him,” Stone said.

Read more