2012 ain’t 2010, but it ain’t 2008 either
June 13, 2012
by
by David Safier
A few thoughts on yesterday's solid Barber victory.
All things being equal, Barber's 7 point win should be very good news for Democrats in Arizona and, by extension, across the country. But all things aren't equal, so it's hard to say what it means. Still, it gives Democrats reason to believe that 2012 isn't 2010. Hard political work and good messaging can put them in position to keep the presidency and gain back some of the ground they lost in the last election.
In 2010, Jesse Kelly came within a hair's breadth of unseating Gabby Giffords, a popular incumbent. Jesse was full bore Tea Party back then, unnuanced and militaristic, and it worked, or nearly did. But in 2012, the district is no longer in the throes of an anti-Obama backlash, and the Tea Bags have been steeped in boiling rhetoric a few times too often. They've lost flavor for more mainstream conservative voters. Kelly's team understood things were different, so they tried to soften his message and his manner. The re-messaging probably saved him from a 12 point blowout, but it wasn't enough. CD-8 almost bought what Jesse was selling in 2010, but it wasn't buying this time, even against a relatively unknown, low key opponent.
Kelly's indecision about how to present himself has become a nationwide Republican problem. The party-animal fun of seeing candidates go full bore gonzo could only last so long. Savvy Republicans realize crazy-base rhetoric may work fine to stir up the 25% who make up their crazy base, but it's beginning to make the rest of the Republicans and R-leaning Independents uncomfortable. "Crazy" was on full display in the Republican presidential debates, and the voters, after becoming enamored with a string of gonzo flavors of the month, discarded them one by one until only Mitt who-knows-what-the-hell-he-stands-for Romney was left standing.
The Arizona Republic shills for the Open Elections/Open Government initiative
June 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
I have been warning you about this "good government" idealists (Goo-Goos) initiative for some time now:
- The latest Goo-Goos gone bad: The top two primary (Nov. 2011)
- The Open Elections/Open Government Act initiative – 'silver-bullet naivete' (Dec. 2011)
- Ivory tower political theory meets cold hard reality: the false premise of the 'top two primary' system (Jun. 2012)
I posted yesterday, California's experiment with the 'top two' primary was an epic failure:
As I have said before, the media villagers love this kind of thing, in particular, the Arizona Republic which has promoted this initiative in its pages.
Sure enough, the Arizona Republic's Laurie Roberts has a column today promoting the Open Elections/Open Government initiative. This requires some explanation.
A couple of weeks ago Ms. Roberts proposed "Operation Dekookification" in which she encouraged readers to identify the most extreme members of the Arizona legislature running for election this fall and encouraged independents to vote for the "moderate" candidate in the party primary.
It sounded good in theory, but Ms. Roberts apparently never checked to see who had filed to run for office before she wrote her opinion. She later discovered to her dismay that many of the extreme members of the Arizona legislature are running unopposed in the GOP primary, and Ms. Roberts just could not bring herself to call for a "Democratic coup" in November, as she termed it. Spoiler alert: independents also can't be bothered to vote in party primaries. There are years of data to prove it.
Next, Ms. Roberts got the bright idea that moderates could sign up to be elected as precinct committeemen to modify the extremism of the GOP. Of course, this bright idea only came to her after the filing deadline had passed. So she had to encourage readers to sign up to become write-in candidates for precinct committeemen (that deadline is today).
I can tell you from years of experience that: (1) few will sign up as write-in candidates, and (2) Ms. Robert's plea likely only encouraged the more extreme activists to do so out of anger at her. The law of unintended consequences at work.
So today Ms. Roberts latches onto the Goo-Goo idealists' Open Elections/Open Government initiative. An open primary is best hope. Her superficial reasoning is typical of media villagers:
This is not a Republican initiative or a Democratic one. Not a single elected state official, party hack or legislative lobbyist has thus far signed on.
Which is perhaps why I so like the idea.
* * *
[S]ome legislators, lobbyists and political strategists are starting to pooh-pooh the plan, warning that it won't spur independents to vote and that it may actually strengthen the two parties and incumbent politicians.
The thing is, the people doing the pooh-poohing have a vested interest in keeping things just as they are.
Phoenix to fight Goldwater Institute election bill?
June 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The Goldwater Institute (an ALEC affiliate) drafted HB 2826 this past session, a bill that would force most elections to be held on only two days every other year, a primary and general election. The bill infringes upon Charter cities' authority to control their own affairs and to govern based on their city charter, as provided for under the Arizona Constitution.
The bill is partly in response to the Goldwater Insitute losing in court this past year on "Paton Law" in City of Tucson vs. State. "Paton's Law" sought to dictate to the City of Tucson that it must hold nonpartisan city council races where councilmembers are elected ward-only, rather than Tucson's unique city-wide system. The Arizona Supreme Court ruled this violated the Arizona Constitution which gives charter cities unique rights to govern strictly local matters.
As always, when Goldwater Institute loses in court it turns to its Tea-Publican stooges in the Arizona legislature to rewrite the rules of the game in their favor.
The Goldwater Institute and the bills supporters claim it is meant to save money on elections and to increase voter participation. However, the ulterior motive is to push local elections down to the bottom of a very long ballot and to crowd out news coverage of local elections (and even candidate advertising) to make it much easier to slip in ideological candidates who have not been properly vetted by the media or the voters. It is a way for the Koch brothers-funded Goldwater Institute to get candidates elected in local governments who support their ideological anti-tax, anti-government spending (on infrastructure and public services), anti-public sector unions agendas.
Of course, Governor Brewer signed the bill into law over strong opposition by the Arizona League of Cities and Towns, and county elections directors who said it would cause havoc with elections.
The City of Phoenix may be ready to be the lead plaintiff in filing a lawsuit to challenge HB 2826. Phoenix fights Arizona law dictating election years:
Phoenix is preparing to sue the state to block a new law that would force Arizona cities and towns to hold elections in the fall in the same years as state general elections.
City Council members who want to challenge the law say it infringes on the city's authority to control its own affairs and govern based on its city charter.
Some are also worried about the unintended consequences of the law, such as forcing sitting council members to serve at least a year longer than their elected terms to comply with the legislation.
Tucson is latest city to approve Move to Amend resolution to overturn Citizens United v. FEC
June 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The Tucson City Council voted unanimously on Tuesday night to approve a memorial joining other cities in support of Move to Amend's campaign to pass a constitutional amendment to overturn the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Citizens United v. FEC. Tucson joins the City of Flagstaff in Arizona, which previously passed the resolution.
The Move to Amend Barnstorming Tour in Texas and Arizona comes to Phoenix Wednesday night, PHOENIX, AZ: Move to Amend Barnstorming tour with David Cobb:
Wednesday, June 13, 2012 – 5:00pm to 7:00pm
Gourmet House of Hong Kong
1438 East McDowell Road
Phoenix, AZ 85006
See map: Google Maps
The Tour comes to Prescott on Friday night, PRESCOTT, AZ: Move to Amend Barnstorming tour with David Cobb | Move to Amend:
Friday, June 15, 2012 – 7:00pm to 9:00pm
Adult Center of Prescott
1280 East Rosser Street
Prescott, AZ 86301
See map: Google Maps
The tour comes to Flagstaff on Saturday afternoon, FLAGSTAFF, AZ: Move to Amend Barnstorming tour with David Cobb | Move to Amend:
Saturday, June 16, 2012 – 2:00pm to 4:00pm
Murdoch Community Center
203 East Brannen Avenue
Flagstaff, AZ 86001
See map: Google Maps
For those of you who missed last night's Barnstorming event in Tucson due to the CD 8 Special Election, the video from the Tucson event is below the fold. h/t John Brakey from AUDIT-AZ.
Movie Night at Drinking Liberally
June 13, 2012
Movie night! Movie night! Join us at The Shanty around 6 o’clock for socializing with like-minded people and watch a Robert Greenwald full length documentary about the billionaire Koch brothers’ attack on democracy. The movie will start as soon as it’s dark enough for the projector to work. A small donation is suggested, but not … Read more
CD 8 Special Election post mortem
June 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
With 100% of ballots counted (excluding provisional ballots yet to be verified), the Arizona Secretary of State has the unofficial results as of 11:12:59 p.m. on June 12, 2012 AZ – Election Results:
Ron Barber (D) 52.02% 101,559
Jesse Kelly (R) 45.37% 88,569
Charlie Manolakis (GRN) 2.30% 4,482
Total voter turnout in CD 8 was 47.13%, most of which came in record returns of early mail-in ballots before Election Day.
Turnout in the two precincts in Pinal County (Saddlebrooke) was 67.11%, which Jesse Kelly won by only 556 votes, down from his 1,115 vote margin over Gabrielle Giffords in the 2010 general election. This was Saddlebrooke's last Tea Party hurrah — these precincts will not be part of the new CD 2. Buh-Bye.
Turnout in the five precincts in Santa Cruz County was 54.74%, which Ron Barber won with 56.44% of the relatively small vote. These precincts will also not be part of the new CD 2.
Turnout in Cochise County was a surprisingly weak 31.36%, which Jesse Kelly won by 2,057 votes, down from his 3,950 vote margin over Gabrielle Giffords in the 2010 general election. Both political parties have their work cut out for them in Cochise County, but have room to grow voter turnout in November.
Turnout in Pima County was 50.40%, which Ron Barber won by a solid 15,316 votes. More of the liberal blue island of the City of Tucson will be included in the new CD 2. Pima County voter turnout in the 2010 midterm election was 65.54%. Pima County voter turnout in the 2008 presidential election was 79.70%.
The 6% GOP voter edge in CD 8 will be reduced to a negligible 1% in the competitive new CD 2. The percentage of registered Republicans decreases from 37 percent in CD 8 to 34.7 percent in the new CD 2. The number of registered Democrats increases from the current 31.9 percent in CD 8 to 34.1 in the new CD 2.
The Case for Socialism
June 13, 2012
by
Posted by Bob Lord
I truly believe that by drilling down just a little into the job numbers and put them next to the assault on unions and the increasing concentration of wealth and income in the top one percent, there’s a strong case to be made that we should be embracing socialism instead of demonizing it.
Start with the job numbers. We were fairly close to what is considered full employment during most of Bush’s presidency. Then, in 2008 – 2009, we hemorrhaged jobs. Since then, we’ve had a fairly anemic recovery and seem to be stuck somewhere in the 8% unemployment range, with many more under-employed or having dropped out of the work force entirely. But that’s an entirely distorted picture of the economy’s ability to produce jobs over that same period. From 2001 through 2006, the construction industry was producing a glut of homes and office and retail space. The effect of the construction industry’s hyperactivity during that period, essentially, was to borrow jobs from the future. Think about it. If the construction industry had not over built during the 2001 – 2006 timeframe, there would have been fewer jobs, not only in construction, but in related industries (mortgage banking and finance, to name a few). Quite obviously, there also would not have been a huge loss of jobs in 2008 – 2009. And, without a glut of homes and office and retail space, there would have been more construction activity over the last few years and, hence, more jobs. But we still wouldn’t be at full employment, or even close.
If you adjust for the artificial shifting of today’s jobs to an earlier period caused by the construction bubble, the jobs picture in America would have been far more stable, but would show that for a full decade we have not been producing enough jobs to employ the entire workforce. That’s not an accident and it’s the fault of neither the Democrats nor the Republicans. The hard reality is that technology and mechanization are fantastic for productivity, but they costs jobs — lots of them. Just a few decades ago, a law office needed almost one secretary per attorney. Today, law offices do just fine with one secretary for every three attorneys, and plenty of attorneys (especially younger ones), don’t need a secretary at all. That’s what happens when you replace typewriters with desktop computers and steno pads with dictation equipment and voice recognition software, and regular mail with email. The global economy also is a reality. Yes, our trade and tax laws suck and, yes, we wouldn’t have lost as many jobs to outsourcing if those laws were better conceived, but we still would have lost jobs and the availability of vastly cheaper labor in other parts of the world will continue to cost us jobs.
Stick a Fork in It
June 12, 2012
By Michael Bryan Barber wins. With 304 of 352 precincts reporting, Barber holds a 52 to 45 lead over Kelly. Now that Kelly has gotten stepped on twice, maybe he'll go away and move to Texas permanently? Got the message, Jesse? We're just not that into you. Now that Barber has kept the CD 8 … Read more
