Arizona Secretary of State

Katie Hobbs extends her lead for Secretary of State

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On Thursday, Democrat Katie Hobbs more than doubled her lead over political neophyte and  Trumpster Steve Gaynor for Secretary of State with votes from Maricopa and Pima County. She has padded her lead to 13,171 votes. It is unlikely that Gaynor can expect a dramatic turnaround with votes trending in favor of Hobbs over the … Read more

Katie Hobbs is maintaining her lead for Secretary of State (Updated)

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In the one race still too close to call, Democrat Katie Hobbs is still maintaining a lead of 5,916 votes over political neophyte and Trumpster Steve Gaynor for Secretary of State.

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We are still a few days away from all outstanding ballots being tabulated. Here is the latest from the AZ Data Guru.

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Here is Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly’s take on this race:

The tightest race was between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Steve Gaynor for Arizona Secretary of State. Hobbs, a state lawmaker, had a slim lead of roughly 5,600 votes as of Tuesday morning, but the vast majority of remaining votes were in Maricopa County, where Hobbs was leading Gaynor by about 12,000 votes. If that trend holds, Hobbs could pull off the upset over Gaynor, a political newcomer who loaned his campaign $2.3 million of his own money (and raised just $212,000) in his bid for public office. Hobbs, by contrast, raised just $925,000 for her campaign as of mid-October and spent less than half of Gaynor’s total.

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Arizona became a purple state in 2018

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Despite all the gloom and doom post-election day reporting here in Arizona about Democrats having squandered their voter enthusiasm and record turnout, as we approach all the votes finally being counted it appears that Democrats had a very good night after all in turning Arizona purple.

Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has won the U.S. Senate seat for Democrats for the first time in almost 30 years, and becomes the first woman to serve Arizona in the U.S. Senate.

Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick took back CD 2 for the Democrats, giving Democrats a 5-4 lead in Arizona’s congressional delegation.

Nationally, Democrats have currently picked up 31 seats to take back the Congress, with a number of races still to be counted in which Democrats lead in most of those races. See, FiveThirtyEight, We’re Tracking The Unresolved Midterm Races. Yes, there was a “blue wave” election. Democrats could win 40 House seats, the most since Watergate.

UPDATE: As of  November 14, the Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote stood at 7.1%, though it may yet inch higher. For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 — which was widely seen as a GOP “wave” cycle — Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. (h/t Maddow Blog).

While there remain votes to be counted, it is increasingly apparent that Democratic state senator Katie Hobbs will be elected Secretary of State. She currently leads political neophyte and Trumpster Steve Gaynor by 5,667 votes. Hobbs’s vote total has increased with each day of vote counting since election day, and that trend is likely to continue.

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Arizona races still too close to call (Updated for Saturday Counts)

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At the close of counting ballots on Friday evening, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has expanded her lead in the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Kathy Hoffman has expanded her lead in the Superintendent of Public Instruction race, Democrat Sandra Kennedy has now opened a slight lead for the second seat in the Arizona Corporation Commission race, and Democrat Katie Hobbs has significantly closed the gap in the Secretary of State race. When all the votes are finally counted, we may actually have some Democratic winners after all.  Count all the votes! And be prepared for a recount, or two.

According to the Data Guru, there are still 370,000 ballots left to be counted statewide, 266,000 of those in Maricopa County and 60,000 in Pima County.

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U.S. Senate (open)

Kyrsten Sinema (R)        991,443
Martha McSally  (D)       971,331
Angela Green (GRN)       46,820

Sinema leads by 20,112

Secretary of State

Steve Gaynor (R)            989,749
Katie Hobbs (D)             979,053

Gaynor leads by 10,696

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Kathy Hoffman (D)       986,355
Frank Riggs (R)             954,546

Hoffman leads by 31,809

Corporation Commission (2 seats)

Justin Olson (R)             901,690
Sandra Kennedy (D)     899,847
Rodney Glassman (R)  898,245
Kiana Sears (D)              837,552

Kennedy leads by 1,602 for the second seat

Ballots will be counted until Wednesday, November 14. Stay tuned.

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Preliminary Results Arizona State Candidates 2018

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It appears that GOP tribalism coupled with a statewide GOP voter registration edge of over a 100,000 registrants is still all it takes to win statewide races in Arizona.

Well, that and massive amounts of “dark money” from out of state anonymous sources.

Republicans appear to have won all the statewide offices, but the Superintendent of Public Instruction race remains too close to call.

Democrats appear to have picked up some seats in the Arizona House. Several races remain too close to call, and there are reportedly over 500,000 ballots yet to be be verified and counted.

Democrats may have narrowed the GOP margin in the legislature, which could force the GOP leadership to negotiate and compromise with the Democratic leadership to pass legislation, instead of simply ignoring Democrats and the constituents they represent. This is a good thing.

Current estimated voter turnout is 46.67%. When more than half of registered voters cannot take the time to fill out a ballot — not including the large number of eligible voting age persons not registered to vote — the health of our democracy is in serious jeopardy. You have to do better Arizona!

(These are the overnight numbers).

Governor

Doug Ducey (R)               57.8%
David Garcia (D)             40.2%

Secretary of State

Steve Gaynor (R)             51.3%
Katie Hobbs (D)              48.7%

Attorney General

Mark Brnovich (R)          53.4%
January Contreras (D)   46.6%

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